Tuesday, November 18, 2008

War Trade?

A glance at TLT & JNK reveal the market is running to the "safety" of Treasuries.
Be patriotic, short junk bonds, buy Treasury debt, and pay capital gains.

As a incredibly paranoid and admittedly stoned lover of arcane conspiracies, I'm beginning to interpret the rise in Treasuries as an increase in the premium to hedge war risk. How long till the next foreign military engagement?

Schicklegrubbing

If this market wants to rally, it sure has a strange way of showing it.
Nothing seems to be making any significant ground in the SPX.
At best, there are an increasing amount of stocks above their 50dma.
Maybe a little relative strength in the Utilities.
In a bear market you make more money shorting the strength than buying it.

I'm not seeing a massive rally in the tea leaves, and the strength in the Utilities is probably a red herring. I'd like to use my time machine, but my bitch ex-wife got it during the divorce... I think she's fucking The Fly. Nevertheless, I predict that we'll be hearing about credit problems in the utilities industry; they love the debt, they have a high yield, they're too big to fail and every fucking Mom, Dad, and Shmuck-A-Fuck has been buying equity from their Schicklegrubbing brokers.

On a totally different side note, I don't know what to think about Twitter. I tried Twitting trades today, and I have little to show for it... time will tell.

Saturday, November 15, 2008

The Weekend S&P500 P&F

The S&P500 looks terrible...
Really terrible...
Invest with caution...
Until some X's get printed on these charts, it's time to be short short short.