Saturday, December 20, 2008

StockTwits Hot Picks

Here are the ticks making noise on StockTwits
ARTC looks like it is headed to 0, but I would cover some shorts on that volume. Hawaii Trader had the scoop on the short here.
As I mentioned here, CPB and consumer staples will lag the market's inflation bounce.
FAS and FAZ were both DOWN by the close Friday. Very fishy, but I'm day trading these Madoff's till the party is over.
GM has had a nice bounce, but anyone buying this for more than a trade is nuts.
The SP500 is putting in some good work here. The upper Bollinger rests at a critical resistance level, so there will be bullish major interest if we break through.

The market continues to show remarkable strength in the face of scandal and underlying economic weakness. Don't fight the tape, ride the wave of bullish profits till we make the next leg down. A SPY price target near the Lehman collapse days of early September is the most bullish scenario for now. Small position size is warranted as the falling volatility is still unusually high.

Friday, December 19, 2008

Internal Investigation

A few ratios to discern the state of the market.
My NASDAQ indicator printed a new X today despite today's fall. Lower volatility is bullish.
The BXM:SPX ratio is banging against the 10sma again, hopefully it will act as resistance and the spread will turn around (bullish).
The continuing fall in Treasury yields is quite discomforting. Either it is fear or a part of some fund strategy that I have yet to understand.
Some suggest that the VIX:VXV is signaling a sell, but I don't see that quite yet.
Although oil is falling in dollar terms, it has yet to make a new low in gold. I'm cautiously bullish on oil, but not with much confidence.

Mixed messages all around, but I'm still buying the dips. Risks are still very high, and the potential for government currency intervention makes prediction particularly difficult.

Bernanke's 0% Means Buy Junk

LQD has been good to me, so why not move down the quality ladder for higher yield?

I'm kicking myself for being too lazy to post this chart last night. The large volume in high yield corporate debt suggests that risk sentiments are changing.
If you like high yield, here is a ton of rising junk you might be interested in.

Emerging market debt is making a 2nd Bollinger violation. I wish there was more volume in this issue.

Muni's have found stability, and offer tax free yield.

Bonds are offering ridiculous yields whilst rising from panic induced bases. If inflation gets nasty, these will lag the market, but if you want to lock in yield, this collection looks promising. My trade in LQD has come to an end, but I think I'll try an scoop up some of these lower credit quality plays if the tape presents itself.