Friday, December 26, 2008

Today's Twittered Tickers $AMZN $FCX $GLD $PLD $WMT

Here are the tickers making noise on StockTwits
The last time I mentioned AMZN was here, and contrary to my forecast, it has risen over 15%. Now that it is approaching the upper Bollinger, I'm technically more bullish, but I suspect this stock is an investment trap.
FCX remains in a vicious downtrend, but a bounce to the upper Bollinger looks like a potential trade in the coming week.
GLD is rising on non-existent volume, but a breakout would be a nice place to trade a long scalp, and then swing short on a pullback to the trend line.
PLD is experiencing a high volume rally with tons of momo, and though it looks due for a pullback, it is a dangerous place for shorts to play.
WMT continues to show strength, but like AMZN, I suspect that fears of fundamental economic weakness will reemerge and bring this stock lower.

GLD is the most interesting trade on my radar, because it is an indcator of global economic stability. Weakness in gold will reestablish deflationary fears, but if it starts to make a run for 1000, there will be talk of hyperinflation. AMZN and WMT have had nice bounces, but regardless of their sector out performance, they will be dragged down with their siblings if there is no sign of economic relief in 2009.

Wednesday, December 24, 2008

Holiday Wish List

Dear President Obama,

I'm writing this letter to you because I hear Santa had his assets with Bernie Madhoff, and I don't think he's gonna be giving out much this year. With so many lining up for billions of dollars, I thought I'd try and get my share for sport.

1. Legalize it
You've done it, my dad has done it, everyone knows where to buy it, just tax it already. We need the revenue, and I wanna make something useful in my apartment. If you really want to avoid a Great Depression, ending the prohibition will create an Era of Creative Empathy... not much, but it's a start.

2. Free health care
I'm not talking checkups and dental (though that's good too), just catastrophe insurance. The kind I'll need when I'm hit buy a car driven by a dude having a massive coronary as he listens to Market Place.

3. Buy the IOU's in the beer fund jar
These assets will have value once the drunk assholes who sold them to me graduate and get jobs. The recent slowdown has made their line of work less productive, but I'm sure you can give em jobs in government.

4. Pay me to live in the USA
It is snowing everywhere. I've been betting on global warming and I get this?!? I could be King in Kashmir rather than a Slob in Seattle. How about some restitution?

5. Miniature pony
This requires no explanation other than my insatiable loneliness.

6. Lump of coal for self pity
With plummeting energy prices, you can certainly afford to send this timeless message to the self flagellating crowd. If coal isn't en vogue, then plant a wind turbine behind each house to employ the local community and advertise sustainability.

7. Update the national anthem
As the first Hip Hop President, you need to establish a search for the illest Jimi Hendrix/Dr. Dre Star Spangled Remix. The chorus will be a war cry to shake our enemies in their sleep.

8. Less waiting in/online
I hear they don't have lines in South Korea... or was it Taiwan? Either way, remember this, the less I wait, the less irate. If the information superhighway was so super, my connection wouldn't drop during torrential rains and missed cable payments.

9. Punish my enemies via a small regional war
This is an old favorite, so I trust you're handling it with care.

10. Less pantsuits on women of power
Pantsuits are hideous. Girls know it. Guys know it. Get rid of them.

If anything here seems ridiculous or impossible, just make it happen during a late congressional session before a holiday and nobody will be the wiser. Better men have done more damaging things, and this will buy you enough time to figure out a plan of action before the people publicly hangs their leaders for rampant fraud and corruption. Happy holiday.

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Indexes, Oscillators and Bears, Oh My!

Today wasn't quite enough to put the nail in the bulls' coffin, but it isn't getting any prettier.
My SPX index is clinging to a bullish signal by a few points.
The NAMO is signaling a downtrend, but we remain in bullish territory.
Banks look ready to break down and test their lows.
MLP's continue to get sacked as oil goes lower than most can imagine. Looks like a good short.
I got stopped out of my SLV position for a break even trade. A new downtrend could bring a retest of the lows.

It is getting harder to defend the bullish side of things. My favorite long play is GDX, but it was up on weak volume as precious metals fell. It smelled like a suckers rally to me, so I've closed the position. For now, I will stick with fixed income until the equities tape gets a bit more positive. I'm shorting whatever pops up on StockTwits and keeping my positions small for the sake of my own psychological well being.