Who Is Antal E. Fekete?

"Red Alert: Gold Backwardation!!!" screams the headline of a Doomsday piece by a fellow I've never heard of. Antal E. Fekete, a professor of something in Canadia, has noticed that the future price of gold is lower than the spot price. He has concluded that there is as SHORTAGE of gold, and that we must BUY.

I'm an idiot, so anything you glean here is entirely suspect. Nevertheless, I'm gonna go out on the limb and note the obvious. One, Antal E. Fekete is an anagram for "neet fake tale," and two, it is better to bet against his advice by holding dollars (for now).

Proposition one needs little explanation. Like the current backwardation of gold, it is a fact of nature. Part two is a little trickier, so I'm gonna keep it brief. Behold, the relationship between the price of Gold and the US Dollar.

Nothing in the past 3 months indicate that the the dollar is falling relative to Gold. I'm suffering recency bias, but you can only trade what you see. Moreover, futures trading below spot indicates a SURPLUS of contracts as miners sell the rights to their product. Nevertheless, the possibility that the CONTRACTS are worthless still looms, and thus the allure of holding physical gold technically remains, right?

No. Gold will also be absolutely worthless when the shit hits the fan. You can't eat, drink, smoke, touch or fuck it. It sure is shiny, and other people want it, but if global commerce ceases to exist, your gold won't buy shit if there is NOTHING. Everyone holding gold is a speculator as it no longer serves as a currency, we have electronic 1's and 0's for that.

Personally, if things really get out of hand, I will do as my country does and sell weapons to a neighbor for US Dollars (or Amero's). Seriously, I'm looking into a Federal Firearms License, and clearly it's easier to run from crying mothers with a fist full of Franklin's than bags of gold bullion.

To Mr. Fekete (if that is your real name), I hope you are egregiously long gold, 100% correct, and subsequently capable of bailing me out when I'm wrong. If it turns out that your kindred are selling gold and spreading malicious rumors, you are a genius, and because America is great, you will be tried by no one but yourself.

Finally, in defense of my straw man Antal, I quote him thus, “a man-made risk is not a valid matter for speculation; only speculation on risks caused by Nature is valid.” If you believe that, you should avoid trading in the markets and shun human contact. The distinction between man-made risk and Nature's nebulous, so indiscernible, it may not exist.

I'm Not Gonna Lie

I sure am glad The Fly took the hit and not me. Here is the post I feared I would be writing tonight. Therein you will find what could have been my future had I not eaten two Xanax and overslept till 11am PST. Even upon waking, Fate conspired to aid me as my melanomic (read: spotty and bad) Internet connection encouraged a retreat back to bed; a life without connectivity isn't worth staying awake for.

A loud knocking roused me from slumber around 1am, and to my delight, I was presented with an invitation to afternoon dim sum. Unaware of unemployment numbers or stock movements, I enjoyed a succulent collection of chicken feet, cow tripe, and pig ribs. Some may gag in disgust, but such things are a delight in troubled times.

Only after gorging on the bountiful deliciousness was my attention redirected to economic woes. See, I live on Main Street. Literally. Main Street, Seattle, Washington. Lots of crackheads. Lots of drunks. Lots of beggars. Lots of bums. It's hard to miss how fucked up things are for many people. And that's when it hit me. I'm winning.

Sure, the only stock I watched today was chicken, but walking away is a trade. Moreover, the 4% rise comes as no surprise in this volatile market, and missing it won't ruin my future profits. You don't have to fish everyday to be a fisherman. My SPY indicator remains bullish, but in high risk territory. Gamble with care.

That is all, so have a good weekend.