Monday, December 8, 2008

Interesting Indexes

Some indexes are beginning to show real signs of life.
Brazil's Bovespa has broken a downtrend and Bollinger Band, so I'm looking to buy on dips.
Gold miners have been putting in an uptrend longer than any index I cover. With so much political uncertainty, I can't say I'm surprised. Nevertheless, stay cautious if you're looking for "safety".
Maybe the insurance business isn't dead after all.
Silver continues to put in a nice basing pattern, which suggests another buy on the dip opportunity.

The USD has shown its first signs of weakening. Hopefully this sucker won't go straight down.

Bulls continue to have something to cheer about as a return to risk emerges from this battered market. Buying dips in commodity markets making technical breakouts is an old trade, but it might be coming back en vogue, at least for a bounce. Since we're in a bear market, stay flexible, and expect a good deal of volatile sideways consolidation.

Tale Of The Tape

This market continues to exhibit an upward bias, so keep buying the dip. Risks remain high.
The markets haven't looked this bullish and stable since Obama was elected.
The spread between Buywrite and Buy 'N' Hold indexes made a new low and violated the lower Bollinger Band, signaling a potential trend change.
The falling spread between US Equity and Bonds indicates an increasing appetite for risk.
The Yen vs the Dollar continues to look strong. Though it is a bearish trades, it hasn't suffered in the recent rally.
The McClellan Oscillator is overbought by recent historical measures, but we're in unprecedented times.

Shorting this market is suicidal for all but the quickest. Ride the wave up, but know that it will come back down. I'm interested in accumulating breakout stocks on pullbacks, so I'm not bottom fishing. I will hedge by getting long SKF or buying Yen.