Thursday, December 4, 2008

What Credit Crisis?

Who would believe it if I said AAA Bonds are in an uptrend?
Good volume and a new Bollinger touch bode well for companies with good credit.

With Treasuries getting bubbly, AAA corporations are offering higher yields and reasonable safety. If there is a credit crisis, it isn't showing up in LQD.

Ratios to Reason

The Buywrite Index has been crushing Buy 'N' Hold strategies for months.
Will the BXM:SPX ratio find resistance @ the 10sma?
Gold miners haven't lost much ground to gold, which I interpret as a bullish signal.
Long LSC and short commodities is one of the best strategies I can see. Up almost 20% since this mention on Sunday.
If I could short JNK I'd give this pair a shot too. Treasuries are still holding strong, but boy does it feel bubbly.
Just because Treasuries are going vertical, doesn't mean they won't go to the moon. Long the 20 year and short the shiny yellow stuff is still paying off, and could continue to do so for months.

Defense wins the game, and over trading will kill the most skilled speculator. I'm watching with amusement and trading vicariously through new found Twitter friends. Good luck out there, but I suspect Brian Shannon has the right idea.

Twittered Tickers

Today's StockTwits
DRYS is up a creek without a paddle so long as the BDI heads south.
Vegas is dead, so the only growth in GGP is a line of panicking creditors.
Now that is Peak Oil. Stay the away unless you're looking to become bulimic.
Double short basic materials looks intriguing, potential price target at the highs, but it needs to clear resistance with some VOLUME.
No edge here, but I'd bet on 0.

This market is chopping people to bits. Even with today's negative price action, my SPY indicator has closed positive. This indicates decreasing volatility and an increasing amount of bullish stocks, generally a good sign. I can't find an edge or direction, so I'm sitting on the sides.