Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Indexes, Oscillators and Bears, Oh My!

Today wasn't quite enough to put the nail in the bulls' coffin, but it isn't getting any prettier.
My SPX index is clinging to a bullish signal by a few points.
The NAMO is signaling a downtrend, but we remain in bullish territory.
Banks look ready to break down and test their lows.
MLP's continue to get sacked as oil goes lower than most can imagine. Looks like a good short.
I got stopped out of my SLV position for a break even trade. A new downtrend could bring a retest of the lows.

It is getting harder to defend the bullish side of things. My favorite long play is GDX, but it was up on weak volume as precious metals fell. It smelled like a suckers rally to me, so I've closed the position. For now, I will stick with fixed income until the equities tape gets a bit more positive. I'm shorting whatever pops up on StockTwits and keeping my positions small for the sake of my own psychological well being.

Dabbling in Debt

Fixed income ETF's continue to show strength in a weak market.
I continue to add to my HYG position as the momo in this ETF has yet to wane.
After closing my LQD for a hefty gain, I've made a smaller reentry with a tight stop.
Emerging market debt continues to make solid gains, but the lack of volume in this issue makes it a terrible trading vehicle.
SHY is losing momentum, but I wouldn't get short too quickly.
I'm nibbling at these Muni's, but with such bleak economic news and weak volume, I'm just as liable to get short if the market moves against me.

Surprisingly enough, the debt market remains resilient in the face of mounting adversity. With so much potential for continued government intervention, the market favors debt to equity. Most of these issues have fundamental problems, but if Uncle Sam is putting in a bottom, then it is a risk I'm willing to take.

Today's Twittered Tickers $HK $UNG $ICE $PALM $RIG

Tickers making noise on StockTwits
HK looks like it is heading lower, maybe back down to 9.
If the market heads down, ICE looks like a low risk short, but the recent strength is more bullish than bearish to me.
PALM could double and still be a terrible investment. Risks are very high.
Massive volume is always a nice place to cover shorts, but RIG looks like it's headed lower.
My best trade of the day was a surprise long in UNG. It remains a high risk long, good for day trades only.

Props to @dvolatility for spotting the UNG trade early in the day. A nice post on the rational can be found here. Being short during the day continues to pay, but my fixed income trades in $JNK, $HYG, $LDQ are still prospering. $GDX and potentially $EEM are the only equities I'm comfortable going long, everything else looks short.