Rally Ramblings

Thank god I don't take my own advice too seriously during the trading day, TWM is down a hefty 5% in two days. As the market rallies, I'm not playing the short side, I don't want to fight a rising 5 day moving average. EWM has been a solid performer over the last two days, and though commodities and precious metals sold off ~2%, they're technically in good shape. I'm still long SLV, and I opened a position in DBA and DBC. I haven't touched FXY yet, though once it finds some strength, I think I'll be picking some up. Solar stocks might be showing life again, as are miners and energy in general. Let's see if the SPY has enough legs to get above 1400, otherwise we can enjoy the ride down to the January lows.

Tuesday Morning

Insomnia has my balls again, so here are some thoughts for Tuesday. I like the action in the following ETF's: DBA, DBC, EWM, FXY, SKF, SLV, and TWM. These seven funds have many of the fundamental and technical characteristics I think will do well in the coming months, and have been looking real good in the past few days. Agriculture recently made new highs on record wheat prices. Commodities in general have held up rather well in the recent market turmoil, Oil seems to have found support, and the precious metals are either near 52 week highs, or breaking to new ones. Of all the foreign markets I track, Malaysia has the most technical strength, and coincidently, PBS did a special on it this evening. The Yen continues to rise as Japanese investors realize how little they know about their debt exposure, and the financials continue to suffer from massive writedowns. Credit Suisse reported a 72% drop in earnings... Silver has been outperforming gold lately, and a friend of mine in the business suggested that this may be due to a cyclical lack of supply from too few mines. Finally, though the small caps have had a violent rally in the past few weeks, if the markets continue to have trouble, I suspect you will see them resume their overall underperformance. FXI continues to look bounceable and bottomish, and USO might be making a break for new highs. I'm keeping a keen eye on XHB and XLF because if there is further weakeness in homebuilders and finance, it means sentiment has really sourered, and we should expect new lows.

Back from the Dead

It has been a rather ridiculous two weeks. This blog hasn't seen too many posts, mostly due to my horrific embarassment and reluctance to get back in the game. SRS, SKF etc took HUGE plunges following my recommendations... and while I had the good sense to steer clear of the mess (after losing 2% of my capital), I feel like an idiot. The rebound seems to have abated, and the market conditions that I like have returned. Gold has continued to outperform the Dow, and Real Estate/Finance has started to continue lower. The only thing that seems amiss is overall strength of the dollar, which I expected to go lower after the Fed's 1.25% rate cut. I've slowly gotten back into shorting the market, and accumulating silver, but I'm also keeping my eye on FXI and EEB for some long term bottoming action. Commercial real estate is starting to make the news, as is credit card debt... I'm pretty certain that these will be the next bombshells to rock the credit markets, but only time will tell. So far there has been some solid safety in bonds, but I'm expecting that to change once inflation starts to become obvious in the CPI. It's fucking 5:30 am... I've got insomnia...