Today's Twitterd Tickers $FAZ $C $BAC $AAPL $STT

Here are the tickers making noise on StockTwits.

Apple looks ready to plunge into the abyss. If you're a regular reader of Smoking Securities, you know I think AAPL is a dog. $27 cash is great, but using using a low estimate of 4.66 EPS next year, a 10 PE makes this a $74 stock. Don't be an emotional investor attached to a brand.

Five days ago I posted about the dangers of BAC here. The message of the market is clear, this is not a place for long term investment. Any purchase of BAC stock is a speculative short term bet that takes advantage of volatility, not improving fundamentals.

Although I expected Citigroup to print a 3 handle, I didn't think it would be in the 2.80 range so quickly. This beast remains a destroyer of long term equity, and should be treated like BAC. Investors relying on TARP banks to pay dividends are playing a dangerous game.

My last mention of FAZ was here, and so far the trade is moving in the predicted direction. The uptrend in FAZ is relatively new, so further deterioration in the financial sector seems likely considering how much room this has to run. Nevertheless, keep your position size up to date because the increasing daily movement will easily shake out emotional bets.

State Street is another toxic financial that should be treated with caution. A sharp rally into resistance will occur, but there is no sign of reversal as the trend remains lower.

Keep your Benjamins close. The market continues to exhibit risk aversion and volatility. This environment requires keen position size adjustment as the daily swings continue to grow. Small bets can reap huge rewards because the tape is relatively noisy. Moreover, poor capital allocation leads to emotional trading habits that increase the risk of ruin when luck goes bad.

IMHO, the collapse of BAC, BCS and UBS threatens the viability of ETFs and ETNs like SKF and OIL. Swap agreements and debt have credit risks that may appear overnight, though some argue that is possible for the USD. Beware potential liquidity issues for leveraged products that adversely alter the tracking of the underlying index if counter party uncertainties arise.

Today's Twittered Tickers $AA $C $FAZ $SRS $USO

Here are the tickers making noise on StockTwits

Alcoa is pulling back into support, and technically remains in an uptrend. This may be a good long candidate once the market stabilizes, but stay away until another X gets printed.

Time for a wholly spurious prediction. Citi will go to three and announce there is no problem because their financial position is sound. The next day they will be bought by (insert remaining bank here) for the price of a Snicker.

FAZ looks like a strong candidate FTW as we enter another wave of financial obliteration.

I've been shorting IYR rather than buying SRS because I'm a huge pussy. That will stop now that the bears are back. This looks like a smoking long.

USO is getting slammed into its final level of support. I'll get long once I see an X printed, but if we break 27, look out below.

If you're searching for a bounce, try looking at SPY from November 20th to January 6th. Boing! My indicators say we're heading lower, so I'm selling the rips as I suspect we're due for a retest of the November lows.

Today's Twitterd Tickers $CTDC $SPY $SRS $TBT $USO

Here are the tickers making noise on StockTwits

CTDC is showing a basing pattern, and a high volume Bollinger break in an uptrend. This looks like something worth buying on dips, but it is currently over extended.

The SPY is showing encouraging stability and remains in an uptrend.

If the shit hits the fan, SRS will be a good place to get involved, just look at that volume! Real estate has not kept pace with the recent rally and may have more downside to come. This is a very speculative long, beware.

TBT continues to rip upwards on huge volume. This is proving to be a great, low volatility trade in a fundamentally sound direction. Great risk/reward in this one. I'm buying the dips, rips and whatever else the tape can give me.

Oil continues to make an impressive rebound, and though we may have a pullback, I suspect this is the real bottom. Clearly, it is too early to say with certainty, but I'm buying DXO intraday and DBC for longer term positions. The risk reward has been PHENOMENAL.

Today's action was great, even if the indexes ended up a tad red. Treasuries are still weakening which is giving a boost to oil and emerging markets. There is also excellent action in fixed income, but I'll provide those charts in the next post.

Today's Twitterd Tickers $APOL $JASO $POT $SOL $SVNT

Here are the tickers making noise on StockTwits

APOL is in an uptrend and rising on increasing volume. This looks like a strong candidate for further upside, but it remains under resistance.

The strong volume is indicative of accumulation, but since JASO is in a downtrend, bets on further upside are high risk.

POT has managed to make some ground since I first covered it here. Though it is enjoying a short term uptrend, the volume has been anemic and I remain suspicious.

SOL had a huge rally, and while it may have more upside, pros like TK are taking profits. This is a risky long.

SVNT is showing a nice breakout with strong volume. The primary downtrend makes this a speculative long, but the pattern offers a good risk/reward setup.

My primary indicator has remained positive for awhile, and thus I'm relieved to see some bullish action. I'm currently in IWN, DBC, and EEM, but I sold my TBT this morning for a b/e trade; bonds just aren't ready to go yet :( Things feel overbought and I expect a pullback, but the picture continues to grow bullish. Risk remains high, but the uptrend has yet to fail.

Off the record, there are some assholes appearing on StockTwits. We all know who they are, and somehow, I can't seem to stop following them. I enjoy watching these tools act like total fuck clowns, because I'm praying for their public demise and subsequent humiliation. God forgive me for my malicious thoughts, but truly, some of your animals test my resolve. One of my New Years resolutions is to be more hospitable towards blustering idiots, but it's Dec. 31st, so fuck em.

Today's Twittered Tickers $AMZN $FCX $GLD $PLD $WMT

Here are the tickers making noise on StockTwits

The last time I mentioned AMZN was here, and contrary to my forecast, it has risen over 15%. Now that it is approaching the upper Bollinger, I'm technically more bullish, but I suspect this stock is an investment trap.

FCX remains in a vicious downtrend, but a bounce to the upper Bollinger looks like a potential trade in the coming week.

GLD is rising on non-existent volume, but a breakout would be a nice place to trade a long scalp, and then swing short on a pullback to the trend line.

PLD is experiencing a high volume rally with tons of momo, and though it looks due for a pullback, it is a dangerous place for shorts to play.

WMT continues to show strength, but like AMZN, I suspect that fears of fundamental economic weakness will reemerge and bring this stock lower.

GLD is the most interesting trade on my radar, because it is an indcator of global economic stability. Weakness in gold will reestablish deflationary fears, but if it starts to make a run for 1000, there will be talk of hyperinflation. AMZN and WMT have had nice bounces, but regardless of their sector out performance, they will be dragged down with their siblings if there is no sign of economic relief in 2009.

Today's Twittered Tickers $HK $UNG $ICE $PALM $RIG

Tickers making noise on StockTwits

HK looks like it is heading lower, maybe back down to 9.

If the market heads down, ICE looks like a low risk short, but the recent strength is more bullish than bearish to me.

PALM could double and still be a terrible investment. Risks are very high.

Massive volume is always a nice place to cover shorts, but RIG looks like it's headed lower.

My best trade of the day was a surprise long in UNG. It remains a high risk long, good for day trades only.

Props to @dvolatility for spotting the UNG trade early in the day. A nice post on the rational can be found here. Being short during the day continues to pay, but my fixed income trades in $JNK, $HYG, $LDQ are still prospering. $GDX and potentially $EEM are the only equities I'm comfortable going long, everything else looks short.

StockTwits Hot Picks

Here are the tickers making noise on StockTwits

I haven't liked AAPL for months, and only price will convince me this isn't a terrible company.

Damn cognitive dissonance... my psychology continues to work against me because I think oil is cheap, but there is no evidence of a trend change.

FMCN appears to be in trouble, and remains a short candidate.

SINA is another Chinese company taking it on the chin. Nothing pretty for the bulls here.

At the risk of revealing more cognitive dissonance, SLB looks like a good short candidate here.

I'm more interested in buying fixed income ETF's like HYG and JNK than getting long any of the above. I'd buy oil if it would just stop knifing lower every 2 hours. Short was the way to play the day, but buying the dip isn't dead yet (I think).

StockTwits Hot Picks

Here are the ticks making noise on StockTwits

ARTC looks like it is headed to 0, but I would cover some shorts on that volume. Hawaii Trader had the scoop on the short here.

As I mentioned here, CPB and consumer staples will lag the market's inflation bounce.

FAS and FAZ were both DOWN by the close Friday. Very fishy, but I'm day trading these Madoff's till the party is over.

GM has had a nice bounce, but anyone buying this for more than a trade is nuts.

The SP500 is putting in some good work here. The upper Bollinger rests at a critical resistance level, so there will be bullish major interest if we break through.

The market continues to show remarkable strength in the face of scandal and underlying economic weakness. Don't fight the tape, ride the wave of bullish profits till we make the next leg down. A SPY price target near the Lehman collapse days of early September is the most bullish scenario for now. Small position size is warranted as the falling volatility is still unusually high.

StockTwits Hot Picks

Stocks buzzing on StockTwits.com

The high volume suggests accumulation, so I like small long positions and extreme caution.

Stockcharts.com isn't showing me any volume, but the trend looks good for the bulls.

These 3x's are a disciplined day traders dream, and an investors nightmare. N00bs beware.

I've felt RIMM was a dog for quite some time, and I still feel that way. It will rise with positive market sentiment, but it isn't a leader anymore.

Bouncing around the lower Bollinger doesn't seem bullish, and I like miners.

EBS looks promising if this market can keep up the rally. Options expiration will be dramatic, and I'll be relying on the StockTwits to keep me informed. Seriously, StockTwits is fantastic; hundreds of minds combing through oodles of data for community profit. The potential of the group is far from fully realized, and I hope that it continues to thrive.

StockTwits.com Top Picks

Hot picks from StockTwits.com

Apple continues to enjoy a short term uptrend, but I think there are better places to feed.

General Motors still looks terrible, but it too is enjoying a short term uptrend.

Google might break the downtrend, but it's at major resistance.

POT is dangerous, and should be avoided (unless you like groovy tunes and the munchies).

I've said it before an I'll say it again. I'm not catching this falling knife, but I bet she'll see 300 again.

SKF is my favorite long term play, but I'm not gonna commit ANY money to it until I see a EVIDENCE of a trend change. AAPL, GM, GOOG and POT seem like better shorts in the coming days, but this is a helluva bear rally, so there is no reason to rush.