Showing posts with label HUI. Show all posts
Showing posts with label HUI. Show all posts

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Rendering Ratios

One final chart post for the weekend.
My NASDAQ indicator keeps printing X's signaling lower volatility and more bullish stocks.
The intervention I was looking for here is underway. Don't fight the BOJ until you see another X printed.
Gold and precious metals like silver continue to put in nice uptrend work. This remains the best sector for any long bets.
More NASDAQ stocks are trading above their 50dma on lower volatility, another bullish sign.
The only thing holding back the inflation trade is the strength of long term Treasuries.

Nothing too crazy in this mix, but I like to keep track of EVERYTHING. Sometimes it feels like busy work, but you never know where future insight will lie. Next up, getting my X-mas wish list ready.

Monday, December 15, 2008

Ratio Roundup

My indicator was down today, but not broken. One sector is in critical danger.
The financial sector made a new O today, indicating an increasingly volatile and bearish environment.
The buywrite/index ratio is rising (bearish), but it approaching a falling 10sma (bullish).
This breakout in the HUI/GOLD is bullish for gold stocks, so I'm buying the dip.
Long/short commodities vs long commodities looks attractive here, but keep a short leash.
Risk appetite has yet to return as treasuries still outperform junk.

Banks look ready to fall again. Tomorrow will be crazy, and though we may see a rally, I think the market is ready to roll over. Hopefully gold will pullback, but if the dollar can't find support by Thursday, I'll be rolling into shiny yellow bricks and yen.

Monday, December 8, 2008

Interesting Indexes

Some indexes are beginning to show real signs of life.
Brazil's Bovespa has broken a downtrend and Bollinger Band, so I'm looking to buy on dips.
Gold miners have been putting in an uptrend longer than any index I cover. With so much political uncertainty, I can't say I'm surprised. Nevertheless, stay cautious if you're looking for "safety".
Maybe the insurance business isn't dead after all.
Silver continues to put in a nice basing pattern, which suggests another buy on the dip opportunity.

The USD has shown its first signs of weakening. Hopefully this sucker won't go straight down.

Bulls continue to have something to cheer about as a return to risk emerges from this battered market. Buying dips in commodity markets making technical breakouts is an old trade, but it might be coming back en vogue, at least for a bounce. Since we're in a bear market, stay flexible, and expect a good deal of volatile sideways consolidation.

Thursday, December 4, 2008

Ratios to Reason

The Buywrite Index has been crushing Buy 'N' Hold strategies for months.
Will the BXM:SPX ratio find resistance @ the 10sma?
Gold miners haven't lost much ground to gold, which I interpret as a bullish signal.
Long LSC and short commodities is one of the best strategies I can see. Up almost 20% since this mention on Sunday.
If I could short JNK I'd give this pair a shot too. Treasuries are still holding strong, but boy does it feel bubbly.
Just because Treasuries are going vertical, doesn't mean they won't go to the moon. Long the 20 year and short the shiny yellow stuff is still paying off, and could continue to do so for months.

Defense wins the game, and over trading will kill the most skilled speculator. I'm watching with amusement and trading vicariously through new found Twitter friends. Good luck out there, but I suspect Brian Shannon has the right idea.