Showing posts with label SILVER. Show all posts
Showing posts with label SILVER. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 23, 2008

Indexes, Oscillators and Bears, Oh My!

Today wasn't quite enough to put the nail in the bulls' coffin, but it isn't getting any prettier.
My SPX index is clinging to a bullish signal by a few points.
The NAMO is signaling a downtrend, but we remain in bullish territory.
Banks look ready to break down and test their lows.
MLP's continue to get sacked as oil goes lower than most can imagine. Looks like a good short.
I got stopped out of my SLV position for a break even trade. A new downtrend could bring a retest of the lows.

It is getting harder to defend the bullish side of things. My favorite long play is GDX, but it was up on weak volume as precious metals fell. It smelled like a suckers rally to me, so I've closed the position. For now, I will stick with fixed income until the equities tape gets a bit more positive. I'm shorting whatever pops up on StockTwits and keeping my positions small for the sake of my own psychological well being.

Wednesday, December 17, 2008

Interesting Indexes

Some markets are stronger than others. Here are 4 potential leaders.
The international markets are performing better than domestic ones.
The insurance sector has acted surprisingly resilient, Berkshire Hathaway anyone?
Spend your grandchild's future now, just don't take away my drugs.
Silver is looking sexy as it breaks above recent resistance. I'm buying the dip, and keeping a short leash.

I hope we get a big gap up tomorrow and then a nice fade all day long. Since it doesn't matter what I think, I'll be taking the day one tick at a time. The banks still look troubling to me, so I'm not touching those Ponzi fuckers. A bounce or two in the USD would be nice, but with so much money coming off the sidelines, there is no reason to think that the dips will be anything other than quick and shallow.

Monday, December 8, 2008

Interesting Indexes

Some indexes are beginning to show real signs of life.
Brazil's Bovespa has broken a downtrend and Bollinger Band, so I'm looking to buy on dips.
Gold miners have been putting in an uptrend longer than any index I cover. With so much political uncertainty, I can't say I'm surprised. Nevertheless, stay cautious if you're looking for "safety".
Maybe the insurance business isn't dead after all.
Silver continues to put in a nice basing pattern, which suggests another buy on the dip opportunity.

The USD has shown its first signs of weakening. Hopefully this sucker won't go straight down.

Bulls continue to have something to cheer about as a return to risk emerges from this battered market. Buying dips in commodity markets making technical breakouts is an old trade, but it might be coming back en vogue, at least for a bounce. Since we're in a bear market, stay flexible, and expect a good deal of volatile sideways consolidation.

Wednesday, November 26, 2008

Turkey Talk

A few ratios and some interesting developments.
US Equity / US Bonds have reached a prior level of support. Watch for resistance.
Another day of advancing volume significantly outweighing declining volume.
The US Dollar looks ready to break its recent and sharp uptrend, implying slowing momentum.
Silver is putting in a nice base, and is beginning to look like a buy.

More evidence of a potential reversal in sentiment is coming to light, but risks remain high.