Today's Twittered Tickers $AMZN $FCX $GLD $PLD $WMT

Here are the tickers making noise on StockTwits

The last time I mentioned AMZN was here, and contrary to my forecast, it has risen over 15%. Now that it is approaching the upper Bollinger, I'm technically more bullish, but I suspect this stock is an investment trap.

FCX remains in a vicious downtrend, but a bounce to the upper Bollinger looks like a potential trade in the coming week.

GLD is rising on non-existent volume, but a breakout would be a nice place to trade a long scalp, and then swing short on a pullback to the trend line.

PLD is experiencing a high volume rally with tons of momo, and though it looks due for a pullback, it is a dangerous place for shorts to play.

WMT continues to show strength, but like AMZN, I suspect that fears of fundamental economic weakness will reemerge and bring this stock lower.

GLD is the most interesting trade on my radar, because it is an indcator of global economic stability. Weakness in gold will reestablish deflationary fears, but if it starts to make a run for 1000, there will be talk of hyperinflation. AMZN and WMT have had nice bounces, but regardless of their sector out performance, they will be dragged down with their siblings if there is no sign of economic relief in 2009.

Fuck the Fucking Fuckers

My Internet was down all day, no trading, no shorting, nothing. I swear there is a conspiracy afoot to prevent me from trading on these awesome days. I missed the Geithner rally a few weeks back under the same circumstances.

Anyhow, the markets look ready to churn lower now that volume has come back in. The bulls have one more day to prove themselves, otherwise this market is going down faster than a 5 dollar whore.

SKF is my favorite, and I wouldn't be surprised to see it at 300 in a few days if the bears maintain control tomorrow. Capital preservation and keen risk management remain the name of the game. TLT, FXY and UUP are still the strongest trades, and have the greatest psychological aversion amongst small investors. Nevertheless, GLD is pulling into potential support, so look for range bound trading, or the resumption of a new downtrend.

Before the Open

It has been a helluva week... Finally found a good pot dealer in the neighborhood, some super duper smoke, so I've been doing a lot of photo editing and not too much trading. I have a comment from a wise trader who caught the huge reversal in financials trading UYG, a solid counter trend move that I have much respect for, and seek to emulate in the future. My macro perspective of the market (weakening American economy in real estate, finance and discretionary) hindered my ability to see the obvious out performance of the aforementioned sectors in the recent mess. I got burned shorting real estate in the reversal, SRS from 130-122, though I've bought it back ~107, SKF ~102, and SCC ~94. What really caused my surprise was not the correction in SRS, but rather, the lack of upside in GDX (which proceeded to happen the next day), which gave me a helluva scare. Needless to say, I'm short the usual suspects via SCC, SRS, SKF and long precious metals via GDX, GLD and SLV yet again. Yen and Franc will continue to strengthen over the next few months as the mess spreads. IBKR had great earnings once again, but continues to struggle in the lower 30's, I guess it is hard to swim against the current. I'm still keeping a small position in BPT, huge dividend, and solid looking chart touching support. I'm also a tiny bit long energy and basic materials via UYM and DIG, but I expect to close these positions Monday, seeing as I was using them to hedge my bets over the weekend.

Midnight Musing

20% of stocks are trading below their 200 day moving average, the VIX is hovering around 30, the White House is expected to release some sort of temporary stimulus package, and tomorrow is options expiration... my bet is on a dead cat bounce. Though I'm mostly in cash, I've taken a position in the badly beaten Chinese index GXC, some ICLR, and AMED (which has a fantastic short position)... I'm sill short gold and silver (which goes against every ounce of my fundamental fiber, but remains profitable), and I expect Friday to continue the head spinning roller coaster ride that this past week has brought. Needless to say, I've lost a bit of capital this week, nearly 1.5% of my overall capital, but when I look at how the markets have been trading, I guess I can't complain. I'd love to see a nice strong bounce, especially in the financials, real estate, and consumer discretionary, because I don't feel comfortable going short at these levels. I think gold will trade down to 830-840 an oz before resuming its upward momentum, so there should be a few more points to the downside in my GLD short. SLV might trade as low as 155, but it is showing much more strength that I imagined, even though it tends to be more volatile than gold. The weakness in energy and materials has done some enormous damage to DIG and UYM, which may prove to be an excellent entry point for a bounce as well. On the other hand, everybody seems to expect a bounce, and that doesn't bode well, because there is less conviction amongst the bears, and therefore less potential for a short squeeze. I watched an interview with John Thain, the CEO of Merrill Lynch, wherein he said he doesn't expect to have anymore significant write downs because they only have another 4.8 billion in subprime exposure... guess that leaves prime loans to go bad, but only time will tell.

Pitiful Pitfalls Prevent Profits

Trading has many advantages, but articulating long term strategies is not one of them... Though I expect good things from the precious metals sector over the next year, today is the second day of high volume downwards action, confirming my thesis that there is a short term top in gold ~900. I've sold all my precious metal related stocks (GLD, SLV, GDX), and have gone short for the time being, who knows when this market will find a bottom. In the "one that got away department", INTC numbers fell sufficiently short of the nervous markets expectations, and the semiconductors are getting pounded (SSG). Agriculture seems to be following gold, and thus I've moved a good deal of my positions short, in cash, or in the yen. Blogging and trading might not mix too well, it is difficult to time recommendations to a reasonable degree in which the remain profitable for weeks to come, not just a few days... I will have to figure out a better method... I'm hoping the Chinese indexes continue lower... they appear to be headed to my long term bargain zone. Using linear regression, I think FXI will be attractive ~120.

Interfestering

It has hardly been a few days since I posted my bullish thoughts on GLD, but what a difference a few days can make... With such a sharp run up in GLD, things looked good this morning as it continued to make new highs... but there was a sharp sell off today, but more importantly, it was on HIGH volume... FOUR times the 3 month average. This is not a good short term sign, and I will be monitoring this closely with the expectation of cutting my gold position in half. Though I still feel it is a very good place to be in the long run, the recent price action has gotten a bit ahead of itself, and with the Fed Futures already pricing in a 50 bps cut, I can only assume such expectations are baked into gold as well... Long term investors shouldn't be too worried, but it looks like the short trade is more viable in the near future, probably indicating a new consolidation range. This will also have a negative effect on the more volatile miners with whom I have placed much faith... needless to say, I'm not trading to be right, but to make money, and thus it may be prudent to take some profits off the table and watch from the sidelines... This mean I will be cutting down on silver (SLV), DBP, HGU.TO and GDX if negative price action persists, all of which I have had a great run with over the last month... I expect GLD to move to 83-84 over the next few weeks.

Post Porno Precious Metals

After a solid jerk to the moans of Ms. Haze, I'm inclined to write a piece on an asset I'm bullish on, lest my dear reader assume I'm a total curmudgeon and hater. A slowing economy is often followed by falling interest rates, which in turn weakens the currency of that economy, thereby increasing the nominal value of assets denominated in said money. Gold reflects this reality, and has done so for the last 6 years.
Since the first rate cuts of the millennium in September 2001, gold has tripled, leading many to believe that the easy money has been made in the shiny yellow metal. Yet, as William O'Neil so concisely points out, "What seems too high and risky to most investors is likely to continue rising. And what seems low and cheap usually goes down."
Gold will appreciate for fundamental, technical and sentimental reasons in the coming months. The best ways to play this trend include ETF's like GLD, GDX, DBP, HGU.TO, and the options tied to these underlying securities. There will also be stellar performance by the likes of Newmont Mining (NEM) and Barrick Gold (ABX), but to offset individual company risk, sectors funds like GDX may be a better bet.
Fundamentally: Gold is called a hedge against inflation, and it has done pretty well in this category, rising with the price of energy and agriculture since the commodities boom began in the late 90's. It is also a safe haven during times of perceived global instability, so as long as there are planes plastering the Pentagon, bombers in Bali, boys blowing up Bhutto and Negros 'nihilating Nigeria, gold will continue to shine. Finally, unlike the fiat currencies of every industrial nation, the value of gold cannot be easily debased (unless you believe there is a conspiracy to add base lead to the bars held by the Central Banks and sold to retail investors).
Technically: Precious metals have enjoyed a solid run over the past few days, months and years, generally moving upwards at a 45 degree angle across the charts. Currently GLD sits ~5-10% above the most recent consolidation levels (starting points are dependent upon subjective analysis), and is making new highs after breaking out of the bullish pennant formed over the past few months.
Sentimentally: Fear has gripped the Street as a fog of uncertainty clouds the quality of assets currently on/off the balance sheets of many financial institutions. This has led Central Banks to do what they do best, cut interest rates to encourage borrowing, further exacerbating the situation by allowing speculators to acquire money on the cheap and invest it in hard assets (i.e. gold and wheat). So long as these quasi-government institutions kowtow to the passions of commercial banks and other lenders, precious metals will move higher.
Recommendation: Buy precious metals on dips, on breakouts, in consolidations wherever, whenever you get a paycheck.