The market shat on the bulls Friday, which made tons of cheddar in SRS,
SKF,
TWM,
DXD. UDN,
FXF and
FXY are trading at all time highs, and continue to show strength as the markets weaken. Commodities were mixed as
DBA moved lower w/ USO, and the precious metals
IAU and
SLV remain unchanged.
GDX,
EEB and
SLX collapsed today, falling between 2 and 4%.
If the emerging market continues to weaken, I suspect we will
visit the January lows, so keep the long trades hedged, or on a short leash. If
EEB stays below 50, I will either exit or reduce my position. I'm still market neutral with a short dollar bias, but if the
XLF can stay below 26.20, I will increase my position in
SKF. Banking indexes have fallen roughly 7% in the last 2 days, and look poised for further deterioration.
IAU and
SLV continue to offer a safe haven in this fiasco. Even though they are trading at lofty nominal heights, adjusted for inflation, there is
plenty of room hard assets to run. Right now the Dow @ 12300 is worth ~13oz of Gold @ 960. I suspect this ratio will
continue to favor gold, considering that sometime in 2000, the Dow was worth more than 40oz of Gold when it traded ~300. Peter
Schiff predicts that the fall of paper equities will bring the ratio to a 1:1 parity, and points to the 1970's as a similar phenomenon. This implies a
DJIA trading @ 5000 w/ Gold @ 5000. While I'm not quite as optimistic (pessimistic?) as Peter (not yet anyhow), 5:1 seem achievable without much difficulty. Dow @ 10000 and Gold @ 2000? Sounds good to me.
On another note, what happens when a civil judgment is entered against you in NYC for public urination?